Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.63 – 74.21

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.2 ±13.3

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 1.72Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 2.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 11.55Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.9 ±11.7

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 10.57Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 52.83Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 10.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9296, 7443, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 7443, 9042

Auto

24.0 100%

Teleop

8.9 46%

Endgame

-13.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10583, 11297, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10583, 11297, 6004

Auto

20.1 26%

Teleop

37.5 49%

Endgame

19.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.6pts

Blue projected score74.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.6
Score range: -4–94
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.2Season APEX201.9

24Auto20.1

8.9Teleop37.5

-13.6Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	17
teleop	32	17
endgame	17	8
foul	0	0
total	62	42

Result

Final score

62 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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