Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.23 – 58.85

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 87.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.7 ±11.6

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 27.45Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 100.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 60.39Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±11.7

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX -7.46Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 57.28Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 9.03Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3822, 3893, 4829

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3822, 3893, 4829

Auto

8.7 5%

Teleop

113.2 61%

Endgame

64.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9788, 9297, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 9297, 6242

Auto

6.6 11%

Teleop

36.2 61%

Endgame

16.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.2pts

Blue projected score58.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.4
Score range: 39–208
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.7Season APEX180.8

8.7Auto6.6

113.2Teleop36.2

64.1Endgame16.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	21
teleop	46	62
endgame	14	49
foul	5	0
total	87	132

Result

Final score

87 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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