Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.66 – 76.06

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.8 ±11.2

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 18.94Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 8.76Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 3.96Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.9 ±12.8

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 3.96Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 61.95Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 10.15Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 9789, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3459, 9789, 6639

Auto

11.7 37%

Teleop

16.6 53%

Endgame

3.0 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10260, 435, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10260, 435, 11146

Auto

13.8 18%

Teleop

51.9 68%

Endgame

10.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.7pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.4
Score range: 11–97
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.8Season APEX148.9

11.7Auto13.8

16.6Teleop51.9

3Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	13	16
endgame	2	12
foul	0	30
total	28	84

Result

Final score

28 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree