Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.4 – 131.15

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.9 ±11

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 81.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 82.84Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 29.41Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.3 ±11

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 51.39Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 34.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 45.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7918, 9297, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 9297, 3822

Auto

23.5 12%

Teleop

113.6 60%

Endgame

51.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 900, 587, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 900, 587, 2640

Auto

14.3 11%

Teleop

70.3 56%

Endgame

40.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.4pts

Blue projected score131.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.3
Score range: 107–217
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 132.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.9Season APEX275.3

23.5Auto14.3

113.6Teleop70.3

51.7Endgame40.5

54Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	14
teleop	24	30
endgame	17	7
foul	55	0
total	134	51

Result

Final score

134 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Match videos

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