Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.86 – 147.82

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.4 ±9.9

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 18.89Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 78.62Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 75.35Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.5 ±10.5

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 63.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 21.15Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 63.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 8429, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 8429, 4561

Auto

42.2 26%

Teleop

81.9 50%

Endgame

41.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 5919, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 5919, 1533

Auto

32.9 23%

Teleop

80.0 57%

Endgame

28.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.9pts

Blue projected score147.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25
Score range: 124–197
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 131.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.4Season APEX279.5

42.2Auto32.9

81.9Teleop80

41.1Endgame28.1

60Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	43
teleop	123	67
endgame	69	32
foul	15	10
total	250	152

Result

Final score

250 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Match videos

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