Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.5 – 115.58

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.5 ±11.1

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 19.4Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 20.46Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 33.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±10.5

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 52.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 47.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 16.11Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10354, 4861, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10354, 4861, 7763

Auto

13.3 20%

Teleop

41.1 61%

Endgame

12.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4935, 7890, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4935, 7890, 9607

Auto

21.4 18%

Teleop

59.0 51%

Endgame

35.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.5pts

Blue projected score115.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.1
Score range: 51–139
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.5Season APEX274.1

13.3Auto21.4

41.1Teleop59

12.8Endgame35.5

59Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	37
teleop	44	98
endgame	28	29
foul	5	50
total	93	214

Result

Final score

93 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Match videos

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