Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
150.82 – 78.11
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
156 – 93
Prediction correct · off by 10 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.5 ±10.5
Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 64.33Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 24Event APEX 21.67Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 157Event APEX 64.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.1 ±11
Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 25.31Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 23.31Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 29.49Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6502, 5919, 1533
71
/ 100 compatProjected
150.8 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6502, 5919, 1533
Auto
31.5 22%
Teleop
80.5 57%
Endgame
29.7 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4829, 6729, 8757
47
/ 100 compatProjected
78.1 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4829, 6729, 8757
Auto
13.3 17%
Teleop
39.6 51%
Endgame
24.8 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score150.8pts
Blue projected score78.1pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 72.7
- Score range
- 55–174
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
279.5Season APEX195.1
31.5Auto13.3
80.5Teleop39.6
29.7Endgame24.8
45Consistency28
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 16 |
| teleop | 86 | 47 |
| endgame | 27 | 25 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 156 | 93 |
Result
Final score
156 – 93
Prediction correct · off by 10 pts
Match videos
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