Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.24 – 116.45

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.4 ±9.9

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 16.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 74.58Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 72.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.3 ±11

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 46.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 28.66Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 41.34Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 8429, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 8429, 4561

Auto

38.2 24%

Teleop

79.3 51%

Endgame

38.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 900, 587, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 900, 587, 2640

Auto

15.4 14%

Teleop

60.4 55%

Endgame

34.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.2pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.8
Score range: 93–186
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 127.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.4Season APEX275.3

38.2Auto15.4

79.3Teleop60.4

38.6Endgame34

65Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	22
teleop	106	76
endgame	60	61
foul	10	15
total	240	174

Result

Final score

240 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Match videos

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