Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.59 – 100.71

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.9 ±11

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 79.78Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 81.01Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 27.8Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±10.5

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 47.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 42.81Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 10.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7918, 9297, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 9297, 3822

Auto

22.8 12%

Teleop

113.8 62%

Endgame

46.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4935, 7890, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4935, 7890, 9607

Auto

14.6 14%

Teleop

54.1 54%

Endgame

32.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.6pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.9
Score range: 78–212
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 126.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.9Season APEX274.1

22.8Auto14.6

113.8Teleop54.1

46.5Endgame32.2

60Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	51
teleop	107	81
endgame	68	53
foul	5	0
total	207	185

Result

Final score

207 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Match videos

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