Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.67 – 147.06

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.4 ±9.9

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 23.24Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 81.27Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 78.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±10.5

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 63.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 57.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 26.77Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 8429, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 8429, 4561

Auto

39.6 23%

Teleop

88.7 50%

Endgame

47.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4935, 7890, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4935, 7890, 9607

Auto

26.1 19%

Teleop

74.8 55%

Endgame

35.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.7pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: 123–207
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 134.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.4Season APEX274.1

39.6Auto26.1

88.7Teleop74.8

47.7Endgame35.8

58Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	46
teleop	145	123
endgame	46	34
foul	15	15
total	256	218

Result

Final score

256 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Match videos

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