Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.33 – 185.28

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±10.5

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 62.04Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 55.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 25.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.9 ±11

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 78.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 79.8Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 27.11Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4935, 7890, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4935, 7890, 9607

Auto

24.7 19%

Teleop

72.2 55%

Endgame

35.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7918, 9297, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 9297, 3822

Auto

25.6 15%

Teleop

101.0 58%

Endgame

47.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.3pts

Blue projected score185.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.9
Score range: 119–209
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.1Season APEX218.9

24.7Auto25.6

72.2Teleop101

35.2Endgame47.2

64Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	28
teleop	91	57
endgame	39	18
foul	5	30
total	171	133

Result

Final score

171 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 40 pts

Match videos

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