Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.32 – 130.95

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 59.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.5 ±10.5

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 62.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 21.5Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 64.13Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±10.5

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 57.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 51.83Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 21.39Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6502, 5919, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 5919, 1533

Auto

34.4 24%

Teleop

78.1 55%

Endgame

28.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4935, 7890, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4935, 7890, 9607

Auto

23.4 19%

Teleop

65.6 53%

Endgame

34.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.3pts

Blue projected score131pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 107–172
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 132.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.5Season APEX274.1

34.4Auto23.4

78.1Teleop65.6

28.8Endgame34.4

66Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	32
teleop	99	114
endgame	15	39
foul	20	35
total	179	220

Result

Final score

179 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 59.9 pts

Match videos

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