Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.02 – 41.64

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 566.7 ±9.3

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 66.55Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 74.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 43.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.8 ±9.8

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX -1.59Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 7.56Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 35.67Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 587, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 587, 3506

Auto

30.0 17%

Teleop

104.2 60%

Endgame

38.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9559, 4829, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9559, 4829, 8429

Auto

6.5 16%

Teleop

19.8 50%

Endgame

13.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184pts

Blue projected score41.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.4
Score range: 23–203
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 107.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

566.7Season APEX317.8

30Auto6.5

104.2Teleop19.8

38.6Endgame13.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	22
teleop	142	40
endgame	53	42
foul	0	0
total	228	104

Result

Final score

228 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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