Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.27 – 125.73

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.1 ±11

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 20.01Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 20.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 63.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.3 ±11

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 2.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 75.86Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 47.39Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 4861, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 4861, 6502

Auto

20.2 20%

Teleop

59.0 58%

Endgame

22.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11285, 7918, 900

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 7918, 900

Auto

15.7 13%

Teleop

66.8 56%

Endgame

36.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.3pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.5
Score range: 79–151
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.1Season APEX204.3

20.2Auto15.7

59Teleop66.8

22.1Endgame36.7

65Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	9
teleop	46	35
endgame	17	14
foul	0	0
total	74	58

Result

Final score

74 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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