Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.41 – 135.33

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.1 ±11

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 12.15Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 76.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 11.37Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±9.8

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 27.16Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 63.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 44.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10412, 9297, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10412, 9297, 11146

Auto

10.1 10%

Teleop

59.0 60%

Endgame

28.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8757, 1533, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8757, 1533, 4935

Auto

32.2 24%

Teleop

61.4 45%

Endgame

42.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.4pts

Blue projected score135.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.9
Score range: 77–158
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.1Season APEX284.2

10.1Auto32.2

59Teleop61.4

28.9Endgame42.2

61Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	19
teleop	91	111
endgame	35	38
foul	0	5
total	158	173

Result

Final score

158 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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