Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.69 – 145.12

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.3 ±9.9

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 18.43Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 69.42Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 67.84Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.9 ±11.6

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 76.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 23.87Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 44.42Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10354, 8429, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10354, 8429, 4561

Auto

37.7 26%

Teleop

81.5 56%

Endgame

25.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7918, 3822, 900

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 3822, 900

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

78.1 57%

Endgame

35.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.7pts

Blue projected score145.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.6
Score range: 123–178
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.3Season APEX189.9

37.7Auto22.5

81.5Teleop78.1

25.9Endgame35.5

97Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	25
teleop	125	95
endgame	39	73
foul	5	5
total	221	198

Result

Final score

221 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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