Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.42 – 124.5

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.6 ±11.2

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 16.56Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 15.16Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 35.7Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±11

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 34.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 20.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 69.54Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9559, 6240, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9559, 6240, 7763

Auto

8.6 13%

Teleop

38.7 57%

Endgame

20.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 587, 10304, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 587, 10304, 6502

Auto

22.2 20%

Teleop

55.1 49%

Endgame

34.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.4pts

Blue projected score124.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.1
Score range: 44–148
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.6Season APEX261.3

8.6Auto22.2

38.7Teleop55.1

20.9Endgame34.7

25Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	19	37
endgame	20	24
foul	0	0
total	53	72

Result

Final score

53 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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