Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.22 – 114.08

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±9.8

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 9.54Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 106.38Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 25.3Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±10.5

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 45.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 44.1Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 24.57Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 3506, 8757

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 3506, 8757

Auto

34.0 24%

Teleop

72.8 51%

Endgame

35.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7890, 2640, 6729

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 2640, 6729

Auto

8.2 7%

Teleop

81.9 72%

Endgame

23.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.2pts

Blue projected score114.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.1
Score range: 91–164
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.4Season APEX312.7

34Auto8.2

72.8Teleop81.9

35.4Endgame23.1

38Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	34
teleop	75	69
endgame	55	15
foul	0	0
total	171	118

Result

Final score

171 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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