Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.89 – 53.75

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.9 ±11.1

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 66.33Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 22.31Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 22.25Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.8 ±11

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -10.65Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 60.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 3.72Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 3822, 5919

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 3822, 5919

Auto

25.7 24%

Teleop

60.0 57%

Endgame

20.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11285, 6502, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 6502, 9607

Auto

11.3 22%

Teleop

25.9 50%

Endgame

14.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score53.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.1
Score range: 32–133
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.9Season APEX170.8

25.7Auto11.3

60Teleop25.9

20.3Endgame14.1

66Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	37
teleop	58	74
endgame	28	37
foul	0	15
total	122	163

Result

Final score

122 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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