Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.88 – 168.46

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±11

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 79.08Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 30.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 38.75Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.5 ±10.5

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 18.43Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 76.01Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 74.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9297, 4861, 587

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9297, 4861, 587

Auto

11.9 8%

Teleop

97.1 66%

Endgame

38.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10304, 7918, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 7918, 1533

Auto

37.3 23%

Teleop

80.4 50%

Endgame

42.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.9pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.6
Score range: 126–190
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.3Season APEX280.5

11.9Auto37.3

97.1Teleop80.4

38.8Endgame42

66Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	68	93
endgame	8	53
foul	10	0
total	99	168

Result

Final score

99 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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