Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.01 – 152.69

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222 ±11

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 20.22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 63.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 43.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±11

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 74.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 35.54Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 42.67Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 6502, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 6502, 2640

Auto

20.3 18%

Teleop

65.7 58%

Endgame

28.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7918, 11297, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 11297, 4935

Auto

27.9 18%

Teleop

78.3 52%

Endgame

44.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score152.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.7
Score range: 105–175
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222Season APEX273

20.3Auto27.9

65.7Teleop78.3

28.2Endgame44.9

11Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	41	91
endgame	56	46
foul	0	0
total	114	167

Result

Final score

114 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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