Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.49 – 213.11

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.4 ±11

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -13.26Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 38.36Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 15.39Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.9 ±9.3

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 132.65Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 66.71Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 13.75Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11285, 587, 10354

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 587, 10354

Auto

11.6 34%

Teleop

20.2 58%

Endgame

2.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4795, 4561, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4795, 4561, 11146

Auto

37.3 18%

Teleop

135.7 65%

Endgame

36.5 17%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.5pts

Blue projected score213.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.6
Score range: 18–235
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.4Season APEX532.9

11.6Auto37.3

20.2Teleop135.7

2.8Endgame36.5

80Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	59
teleop	38	82
endgame	4	53
foul	5	0
total	58	194

Result

Final score

58 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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