Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.34 – 127.17

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±10.5

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 69.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 48.12Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 39.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.5 ±10.5

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 67.31Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 6.68Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 53.18Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1533, 900, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1533, 900, 2640

Auto

28.3 20%

Teleop

82.3 57%

Endgame

32.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 3822, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 3822, 6502

Auto

32.3 25%

Teleop

77.0 60%

Endgame

18.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score127.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 105–179
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX322.5

28.3Auto32.3

82.3Teleop77

32.8Endgame18.9

44Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	56
teleop	86	90
endgame	51	19
foul	0	50
total	172	215

Result

Final score

172 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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