Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.04 – 24.88

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.5 ±12.1

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 27.31Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 23.34Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 46.39Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.1 ±11

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 16.91Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -25.22Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 33.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6729, 10304, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

97 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6729, 10304, 11297

Auto

24.0 29%

Teleop

27.3 33%

Endgame

32.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5919, 11285, 4935

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5919, 11285, 4935

Auto

6.5 19%

Teleop

19.4 58%

Endgame

7.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97pts

Blue projected score24.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 3–119
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.5Season APEX151.1

24Auto6.5

27.3Teleop19.4

32.5Endgame7.5

20Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	30
teleop	31	50
endgame	4	20
foul	0	0
total	46	100

Result

Final score

46 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 63.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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