Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.62 – 183.24

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312 ±10.5

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 67.26Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.03Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 38.33Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408 ±9.3

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 27.11Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 128.42Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 27.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 9559, 4861

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 9559, 4861

Auto

16.5 13%

Teleop

91.5 73%

Endgame

18.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8757, 4795, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8757, 4795, 7763

Auto

36.5 21%

Teleop

106.1 60%

Endgame

33.5 19%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.6pts

Blue projected score183.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 99–205
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312Season APEX408

16.5Auto36.5

91.5Teleop106.1

18.2Endgame33.5

91Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	49
teleop	36	112
endgame	48	64
foul	0	15
total	100	240

Result

Final score

100 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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