Qualification · Qualification 39
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
150.66 – 94.55
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
218 – 55
Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.1 ±10.5
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 57.34Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 19.97Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 73.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.6 ±12.2
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 19.02Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 46.38Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 29.15Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8429, 6729, 9297
72
/ 100 compatProjected
150.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 8429, 6729, 9297
Auto
22.1 15%
Teleop
94.6 64%
Endgame
30.3 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10412, 2640, 6240
50
/ 100 compatProjected
94.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 10412, 2640, 6240
Auto
13.2 14%
Teleop
43.5 47%
Endgame
35.3 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score150.7pts
Blue projected score94.6pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 56.1
- Score range
- 73–173
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
336.1Season APEX125.6
22.1Auto13.2
94.6Teleop43.5
30.3Endgame35.3
117Consistency42
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 25 | 5 |
| teleop | 145 | 38 |
| endgame | 48 | 7 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 218 | 55 |
Result
Final score
218 – 55
Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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