Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.51 – 48.52

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.9 ±10.5

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 107.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 11Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 52.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.6 ±11.6

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 25.52Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 15.82Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 7.18Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 10354, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3506, 10354, 6502

Auto

36.4 22%

Teleop

92.1 56%

Endgame

35.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10304, 11146, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 11146, 3822

Auto

20.2 50%

Teleop

13.9 34%

Endgame

6.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.5pts

Blue projected score48.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123
Score range: 27–194
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.9Season APEX137.6

36.4Auto20.2

92.1Teleop13.9

35.9Endgame6.7

59Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	11
teleop	107	9
endgame	37	17
foul	5	0
total	176	37

Result

Final score

176 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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