Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.75 – 216.91

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.2 ±11.6

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 48.77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 17.4Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 21.58Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340 ±11.2

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 68.18Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 124.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 24.52Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11297, 9559, 5919

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11297, 9559, 5919

Auto

22.5 27%

Teleop

24.7 30%

Endgame

35.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7918, 4795, 6240

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 4795, 6240

Auto

48.9 23%

Teleop

127.2 60%

Endgame

35.8 17%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score216.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.2
Score range: 66–239
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.2Season APEX340

22.5Auto48.9

24.7Teleop127.2

35Endgame35.8

20Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	39
teleop	47	123
endgame	0	84
foul	0	0
total	69	246

Result

Final score

69 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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