Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.1 – 112.57

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.8 ±11

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 11.07Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 33.14Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 38.89Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.5 ±10.5

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 33.49Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 45.51Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 33.57Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3822, 8757, 587

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3822, 8757, 587

Auto

24.3 28%

Teleop

46.5 54%

Endgame

15.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2640, 8429, 4861

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2640, 8429, 4861

Auto

29.5 27%

Teleop

51.6 47%

Endgame

29.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score112.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.5
Score range: 61–135
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.8Season APEX303.5

24.3Auto29.5

46.5Teleop51.6

15.1Endgame29.3

41Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	26	139
endgame	28	26
foul	0	0
total	71	194

Result

Final score

71 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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