Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.58 – 86.73

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±9.8

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 16.42Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 55.29Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 63.87Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146 ±12.2

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 47.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 19.49Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 20.2Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11146, 7890, 7918

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 7890, 7918

Auto

21.5 16%

Teleop

82.2 62%

Endgame

29.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 5919, 6240

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 5919, 6240

Auto

23.5 30%

Teleop

31.7 40%

Endgame

23.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.6pts

Blue projected score86.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 65–158
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.7Season APEX146

21.5Auto23.5

82.2Teleop31.7

29.3Endgame23.5

112Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	121	68
endgame	31	45
foul	5	0
total	177	128

Result

Final score

177 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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