Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.48 – 149.3

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±11.6

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -1.41Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 48.36Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 71.53Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±11.1

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 42.01Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 31.1Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 76.19Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9607, 11297, 9297

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9607, 11297, 9297

Auto

17.1 16%

Teleop

62.1 58%

Endgame

27.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 900, 4861, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 900, 4861, 4561

Auto

19.2 14%

Teleop

79.2 57%

Endgame

40.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.5pts

Blue projected score149.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.8
Score range: 96–171
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233Season APEX342.2

17.1Auto19.2

62.1Teleop79.2

27.4Endgame40.5

59Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	44	117
endgame	74	24
foul	0	0
total	130	159

Result

Final score

130 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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