Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.05 – 158.54

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±10.5

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 20.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 115.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 2.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.6 ±11.2

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 10.58Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 65.66Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 82.3Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4861, 4795, 11285

/ 100 compat

Projected

139 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4861, 4795, 11285

Auto

31.0 22%

Teleop

84.3 60%

Endgame

25.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6240, 4935, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6240, 4935, 8429

Auto

35.9 23%

Teleop

80.2 52%

Endgame

38.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139pts

Blue projected score158.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.5
Score range: 114–184
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.2Season APEX285.6

31Auto35.9

84.3Teleop80.2

25.2Endgame38.3

95Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	28
teleop	109	37
endgame	9	53
foul	0	0
total	129	118

Result

Final score

129 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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