Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.76 – 158.18

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.9 ±9.9

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 53.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 44.63Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 15.01Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.5 ±10.5

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 30.39Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 111.05Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 16.74Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7890, 8429, 10304

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 8429, 10304

Auto

19.6 19%

Teleop

41.4 40%

Endgame

43.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2640, 4795, 5919

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2640, 4795, 5919

Auto

35.9 25%

Teleop

97.4 67%

Endgame

12.3 8%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.8pts

Blue projected score158.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.4
Score range: 92–179
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.9Season APEX340.5

19.6Auto35.9

41.4Teleop97.4

43.4Endgame12.3

155Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	40
teleop	68	107
endgame	23	67
foul	10	0
total	144	214

Result

Final score

144 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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