Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.48 – 5.43

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 67 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.2 ±11

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 16.99Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 46Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 11.49Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 135.4 ±11.7

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -17.32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 11.56Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 11.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4829, 7918, 10412

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4829, 7918, 10412

Auto

14.4 20%

Teleop

36.6 50%

Endgame

21.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11285, 6240, 11146

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 6240, 11146

Auto

3.9 30%

Teleop

5.9 45%

Endgame

3.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.5pts

Blue projected score5.4pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.1
Score range: -16–95
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.2Season APEX135.4

14.4Auto3.9

36.6Teleop5.9

21.8Endgame3.2

42Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	12
teleop	102	14
endgame	51	13
foul	0	0
total	175	39

Result

Final score

175 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 67 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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