Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.24 – 169.08

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±10.5

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 61.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 26.4Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 98.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.2 ±9.9

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 79.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 7.18Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 82.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6502, 6729, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 6729, 3506

Auto

30.6 17%

Teleop

114.5 64%

Endgame

33.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1533, 9607, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1533, 9607, 4561

Auto

37.2 22%

Teleop

106.7 63%

Endgame

26.8 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score169.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.2
Score range: 148–207
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.1Season APEX417.2

30.6Auto37.2

114.5Teleop106.7

33.6Endgame26.8

82Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	18
teleop	101	65
endgame	38	29
foul	0	5
total	169	117

Result

Final score

169 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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