Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.18 – 98.19

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±11

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 55.68Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -8.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 35.58Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.5 ±11.6

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 19.94Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 68.96Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 9.29Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11297, 11285, 8757

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11297, 11285, 8757

Auto

24.0 28%

Teleop

34.1 40%

Endgame

27.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3822, 9297, 10354

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3822, 9297, 10354

Auto

21.3 24%

Teleop

59.7 67%

Endgame

8.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.2pts

Blue projected score98.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15
Score range: 62–119
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.7Season APEX166.5

24Auto21.3

34.1Teleop59.7

27.2Endgame8.5

80Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	5	81
endgame	7	20
foul	0	0
total	32	116

Result

Final score

32 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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