Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.7 – 97.19

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.7 ±10.5

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 19.18Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4935T-Rex

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 23.78Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 44.74Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.3 ±12.2

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 39.27Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 33.9Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 24.02Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 900, 4935, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 900, 4935, 7890

Auto

4.8 6%

Teleop

55.9 71%

Endgame

18.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 587, 10304, 6240

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 587, 10304, 6240

Auto

16.9 22%

Teleop

13.2 17%

Endgame

46.4 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score97.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.5
Score range: 66–119
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.7Season APEX186.3

4.8Auto16.9

55.9Teleop13.2

18.5Endgame46.4

158Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	82	21
endgame	65	11
foul	0	0
total	162	47

Result

Final score

162 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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