Qualification · Qualification 23
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
114.66 – 51.29
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
283 – 91
Prediction correct · off by 104 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 92.1Event APEX -14.15Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 34.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 94.77Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.3 ±12.1
Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 18.26Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 31.32Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 1.71Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4829, 6502, 4795
61
/ 100 compatProjected
114.7 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4829, 6502, 4795
Auto
21.2 18%
Teleop
82.9 71%
Endgame
12.1 10%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4861, 6729, 10412
32
/ 100 compatProjected
51.3 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4861, 6729, 10412
Auto
3.5 7%
Teleop
39.4 82%
Endgame
5.0 10%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score114.7pts
Blue projected score51.3pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 63.4
- Score range
- 30–136
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
423.7Season APEX103.3
21.2Auto3.5
82.9Teleop39.4
12.1Endgame5
149Consistency113
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 56 | 11 |
| teleop | 165 | 39 |
| endgame | 47 | 41 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 283 | 91 |
Result
Final score
283 – 91
Prediction correct · off by 104 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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