Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
87.02 – 161.19
28%72%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
204 – 183
Prediction missed · off by 69.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 39Event APEX 9.24Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 30.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 47.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±11.1
Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 41.27Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 91.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 28.75Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9559, 7918, 9297
51
/ 100 compatProjected
87 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 9559, 7918, 9297
Auto
18.8 22%
Teleop
57.5 67%
Endgame
9.5 11%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11297, 3506, 3822
82
/ 100 compatProjected
161.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 11297, 3506, 3822
Auto
38.0 24%
Teleop
87.7 54%
Endgame
35.9 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score87pts
Blue projected score161.2pts
Red win probability28%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -74.2
- Score range
- 67–181
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
220.6Season APEX355.9
18.8Auto38
57.5Teleop87.7
9.5Endgame35.9
84Consistency62
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 50 |
| teleop | 127 | 79 |
| endgame | 59 | 44 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 204 | 183 |
Result
Final score
204 – 183
Prediction missed · off by 69.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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