Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
95.06 – 74.13
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
154 – 41
Prediction correct · off by 46 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.5 ±10.5
Season APEX 24Event APEX 13.33Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 54.05Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 27.68Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 29.82Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 14.99Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 29.32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5919, 8429, 8757
54
/ 100 compatProjected
95.1 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 5919, 8429, 8757
Auto
26.2 29%
Teleop
24.6 27%
Endgame
41.0 45%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7763, 9607, 11146
44
/ 100 compatProjected
74.1 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 7763, 9607, 11146
Auto
3.0 4%
Teleop
40.6 58%
Endgame
26.7 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score95.1pts
Blue projected score74.1pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 20.9
- Score range
- 54–115
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
262.5Season APEX203.9
26.2Auto3
24.6Teleop40.6
41Endgame26.7
145Consistency76
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 50 | 7 |
| teleop | 74 | 19 |
| endgame | 25 | 10 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 154 | 41 |
Result
Final score
154 – 41
Prediction correct · off by 46 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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