Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.54 – 122.56

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.1 ±10.5

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 33.35Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 84.92Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2640HOTBOTZ

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 24.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±11.1

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 19.53Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 7.97Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 95.06Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10304, 4561, 2640

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10304, 4561, 2640

Auto

25.8 21%

Teleop

65.8 54%

Endgame

31.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4861, 10354, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4861, 10354, 1533

Auto

27.8 26%

Teleop

69.1 65%

Endgame

9.8 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score122.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20
Score range: 103–163
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.1Season APEX221.4

25.8Auto27.8

65.8Teleop69.1

31.1Endgame9.8

103Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	40
teleop	83	33
endgame	61	24
foul	5	5
total	166	102

Result

Final score

166 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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