Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.13 – 99.15

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.6 ±11.1

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 81.99Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

900The Zebracorns

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 19.3Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3822Neon Krakens

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 15.84Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266 ±11

6729RobCoBots

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 36.18Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 57.75Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4829Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 5.22Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4795, 900, 3822

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4795, 900, 3822

Auto

14.9 16%

Teleop

60.0 64%

Endgame

18.2 20%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6729, 587, 4829

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6729, 587, 4829

Auto

12.2 13%

Teleop

57.3 61%

Endgame

24.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.1pts

Blue projected score99.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18
Score range: 79–137
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.6Season APEX266

14.9Auto12.2

60Teleop57.3

18.2Endgame24.6

233Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	10
teleop	103	33
endgame	5	14
foul	0	0
total	153	57

Result

Final score

153 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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