Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.19 – 109.28

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.7 ±9.3

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 19.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 32.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 45.53Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±11.1

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 46.95Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 46.37Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10412TechBotTronics-1RSNC

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 15.96Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 6502, 7890

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7763, 6502, 7890

Auto

13.3 15%

Teleop

54.1 61%

Endgame

20.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 11297, 10412

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 11297, 10412

Auto

27.6 25%

Teleop

44.2 41%

Endgame

37.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.2pts

Blue projected score109.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.1
Score range: 78–129
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.7Season APEX319.6

13.3Auto27.6

54.1Teleop44.2

20.7Endgame37.1

118Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	28
teleop	94	44
endgame	39	22
foul	5	5
total	143	99

Result

Final score

143 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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