Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.74 – 74.68

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±9.3

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 50.61Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 80.42Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 86.71Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.2 ±11.6

11146CitrusDuckz

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 33.62Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 20.68Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 20.38Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9297, 1533, 3506

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9297, 1533, 3506

Auto

39.2 18%

Teleop

117.2 54%

Endgame

60.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11146, 10354, 5919

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11146, 10354, 5919

Auto

16.0 28%

Teleop

29.3 51%

Endgame

11.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.7pts

Blue projected score74.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.1
Score range: 55–238
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 110.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.6Season APEX115.2

39.2Auto16

117.2Teleop29.3

60.3Endgame11.7

126Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	175	14
endgame	30	7
foul	0	5
total	247	41

Result

Final score

247 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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