Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
47.67 – 58.21
47%53%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
68 – 41
Prediction missed · off by 18.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 23.45Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 18.51Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 5.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 83.1 ±12.2
Season APEX 39Event APEX 17.65Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 29Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 11.56Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8757, 2640, 11285
37
/ 100 compatProjected
47.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 8757, 2640, 11285
Auto
10.6 18%
Teleop
41.5 69%
Endgame
7.7 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9559, 6240, 9607
39
/ 100 compatProjected
58.2 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9559, 6240, 9607
Auto
23.3 41%
Teleop
14.6 26%
Endgame
18.5 33%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score47.7pts
Blue projected score58.2pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -10.5
- Score range
- 27–79
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
186.9Season APEX83.1
10.6Auto23.3
41.5Teleop14.6
7.7Endgame18.5
108Consistency121
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 18 |
| teleop | 33 | 12 |
| endgame | 18 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 68 | 41 |
Result
Final score
68 – 41
Prediction missed · off by 18.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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