Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
199.15 – 116.75
74%26%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
117 – 160
Prediction missed · off by 62.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 58.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 79.05Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 61.46Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±10.5
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 23.25Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 68.12Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 25.38Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7918, 587, 8429
81
/ 100 compatProjected
199.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7918, 587, 8429
Auto
27.6 15%
Teleop
93.9 52%
Endgame
59.8 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4935, 4561, 6729
68
/ 100 compatProjected
116.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4935, 4561, 6729
Auto
26.1 20%
Teleop
79.7 61%
Endgame
24.5 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.11
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score199.2pts
Blue projected score116.8pts
Red win probability74%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 82.4
- Score range
- 97–219
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
392.8Season APEX366.2
27.6Auto26.1
93.9Teleop79.7
59.8Endgame24.5
3Consistency93
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 14 |
| teleop | 53 | 120 |
| endgame | 32 | 26 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 117 | 160 |
Result
Final score
117 – 160
Prediction missed · off by 62.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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