Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.99 – 80.49

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±11.2

9297BOGOBOTS

Season APEX 98.2Event APEX 59.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 24.66Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 77.67Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.3 ±10.4

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 37.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8757GeodeBots

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 33.36Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 10.06Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9297, 6240, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9297, 6240, 4561

Auto

25.4 16%

Teleop

89.9 57%

Endgame

41.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 8757, 9559

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 8757, 9559

Auto

16.5 20%

Teleop

40.8 50%

Endgame

24.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score80.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.5
Score range: 59–183
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX189.3

25.4Auto16.5

89.9Teleop40.8

41.2Endgame24.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	21
teleop	93	30
endgame	34	16
foul	5	0
total	158	67

Result

Final score

158 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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