Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
84.01 – 49.32
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
154 – 66
Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.2 ±10.5
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 16.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 4.26Rank 28Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 63.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.3 ±12.1
Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 11.77Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 10.27Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 27.28Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4935, 10412, 4795
57
/ 100 compatProjected
84 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 4935, 10412, 4795
Auto
22.3 25%
Teleop
51.9 59%
Endgame
13.5 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3822, 9607, 4861
37
/ 100 compatProjected
49.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 3822, 9607, 4861
Auto
7.6 15%
Teleop
38.8 76%
Endgame
4.9 10%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score84pts
Blue projected score49.3pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 34.7
- Score range
- 28–105
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
327.2Season APEX91.3
22.3Auto7.6
51.9Teleop38.8
13.5Endgame4.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 17 |
| teleop | 112 | 31 |
| endgame | 23 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 154 | 66 |
Result
Final score
154 – 66
Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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