Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.27 – 117.39

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±10.5

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX -3.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 38.46Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 39.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.1 ±9.9

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 53.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 67.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX -4.13Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 5919, 7918

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7763, 5919, 7918

Auto

13.8 19%

Teleop

40.8 56%

Endgame

18.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7890, 1533, 10354

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7890, 1533, 10354

Auto

14.6 15%

Teleop

70.2 71%

Endgame

13.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score117.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.1
Score range: 53–138
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX366.1

13.8Auto14.6

40.8Teleop70.2

18.2Endgame13.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	44
teleop	39	82
endgame	22	31
foul	25	0
total	102	157

Result

Final score

102 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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