Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
235.71 – 191.55
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
278 – 161
Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 39Event APEX 9.39Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 112.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 113.41Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.4 ±9.9
Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 26.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 84.12Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 80.94Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9559, 3506, 4795
84
/ 100 compatProjected
235.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 9559, 3506, 4795
Auto
46.6 20%
Teleop
136.4 57%
Endgame
55.8 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10304, 8429, 4561
82
/ 100 compatProjected
191.6 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 10304, 8429, 4561
Auto
40.8 22%
Teleop
95.5 52%
Endgame
47.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.28
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score235.7pts
Blue projected score191.6pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 44.2
- Score range
- 168–260
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
476.5Season APEX466.4
46.6Auto40.8
136.4Teleop95.5
55.8Endgame47.5
45Consistency51
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 76 | 38 |
| teleop | 154 | 77 |
| endgame | 43 | 46 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 278 | 161 |
Result
Final score
278 – 161
Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts
Match videos
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